International Forecasts and Simulations
Preliminary requirements:
International Relations Theories, Contemporary International Relations (with political and economic parts).
A student should be familiar with basic concepts or IR including core elements of leading IR theories. He or she should possess general knowledge of current issues in world politics.
Course Description:
Social Science – general approach
Social Constructivism as Forecasting Matrix
Future forecasts in IR theories
Decision-Making Process
Game theory
Collective actions problems
Forecast methods
The Future World Order and Globalization. The Future Trends
Aims of the course:
The main aim of this course is to critically examine and put into theoretical perspective various methods of future forecast in social science. The idea of substantial differences between forecast processes in the natural sciences and social sciences will act as starting point for the first debates. Students will examine various visions of future forecasts in the subfield of IR theories.
Teaching methods:
Seminar; discussion; presentation; individual consultations, group work.
Evaluation & Completion:
Presence: 25%, discussion participation 25%, individual forecast (essay) 25%, group work (forecast presentation) 25%. For each of the parts student receives points. In order to pass, he or she must obtain 8 out of 20 points possible to collect throughout the semester.
Basic Literature:
- J. Scott Armstrong (ed.) (2001), Principles of Forecasting. A Handbook for Researchers and Practitioners, Springer. Philadelphia.
- J. Scott Armstrong (1985), Long-Range Forecasting. From Crystal Ball to Computer, available on-line at: http://www.forecastingprinciples.com
- Roger B. Myerson (2007), Force and Restraint In Strategic Deterrence: A Game-Theorist’s Perspective, available at: http://www.StrategicStudiesInstitute.army.mil/
- Gene Rowea, George Wrightb (1999), The Delphi technique as a forecasting tool: issues and analysis, “International Journal of Forecasting” 15, pp. 353–375.
- Scenarios Europe 2010. Five Possible Futures For Europe, Gilles Bertrand (Coord.), Anna Michalski, Lucio R. Pench, European Commission, Forward Studies Unit, Working Paper, July 1999.
- D. W. Bunn; M. M. Mustafaoglu (Nov., 1978), “Forecasting Political Risk”, Management Science, Vol. 24, No. 15., pp. 1557-1567.
- John R. Freeman; Brian L. Job, (Mar., 1979), “Scientific Forecasts in International Relations: Problems of Definition and Epistemology”, International Studies Quarterly, Vol. 23, No. 1., pp. 113-143.
- Kesten C. Green, J. Scott Armstrong (2007), “Structured analogies for forecasting”, International Journal of Forecasting 23, pp. 365–376
Additional Literature:
Jennifer Werner, 2nd February 2035, „Wroclaw International Review”, No. 3-4/2009, Year III, pp. 75-80.
On-line resources:
- Complex information including links to complete articles on forecasting, glossary etc. http://www.forecastingprinciples.com
- Bruce Bueno de Mesquita predicts Iran's future: http://www.ted.com/talks/bruce_bueno_de_mesquita_predicts_iran_s_future.html
- Joseph Nye on global power shifts: http://www.ted.com/talks/joseph_nye_on_global_power_shifts.html
- International Futures: http://www.ifs.du.edu/index.aspx
- „NATIONAL FORESIGHT PROGRAMME POLSKA 2020”: http://www.polska2020.pl/cms/en/
- SPSS predictive analytics software and solutions: http://www-01.ibm.com/software/analytics/spss/
- SAS (statistical analysis system):http://www.sas.com/govedu/edu/programs/od_academics.htmlx
- Google Public Data: http://www.google.com/publicdata/explore?ds=d5bncppjof8f9_&hl=en&dl=en
